期货市场:
日胶市场受到日元贬值提振早盘大幅高开,全体基本震荡走高,日盘收盘于322.7日元,涨9.6点,涨幅3.07%。沪胶市场昨日大跌之后今日反弹修正,早盘小幅高开后全体维持震荡走势,直至尾盘被拉升走高,主力1009最终报收于24735元,涨200点,涨幅0.82%。
现货市场:
泰国合艾橡胶原料交易市场收购价格生胶片报114.58泰铢/公斤,涨1.92;胶水无报价;烟片报121.27泰铢/公斤,涨3.02。干胶现货方面,国内市场报价较为混乱,市场心态分歧明显,一方面陆续有低价报出,另一方面贸易商依旧坚持看好心态,价格高企;美元胶市场多跌,幅度多在10-30,印尼胶幅度略大;青岛保税区现货报价多跌20美金,市场心态观望为主,成交清淡。今日乳胶现货和外盘报价稳定,期货进入震荡轨道,原料高企仍对现货形成支撑,国内外产区开割,供应增多预期下下游观望情绪浓厚,出货较为困难。今日三大垦区浓缩乳胶挂单688吨,成交10吨;全乳胶挂单820吨,成交303吨;10#标胶挂单40吨,无成交;5#凝标挂单21吨,成交21吨,5#标胶挂单60吨,无成交。
焦点回顾:ANRPC 修正2009年泰国等天胶产量
ANRPC 最近季报数据:上调2009年泰国等天胶产量;修正泰国产量为308.6万吨,仅比2008年减少0.1%。
Year
|
Brazil
|
Guatemala
|
Other
Latin
America
(a) |
Cameroon
|
Côte d''
Ivoire
|
Ghana
|
Gabon
|
Guinea
|
Liberia
|
Nigeria
|
2002 |
89.0 |
48.0 |
28.0 |
57.0 |
120.0 |
8.8 |
0.4 |
8.5 |
109.0 |
42.0 |
2003 |
94.0 |
49.0 |
29.0 |
59.0 |
127.0 |
9.2 |
1.0 |
10.0 |
107.0 |
38.0 |
2004 |
101.4 |
60.4 |
29.0 |
54.0 |
143.0 |
9.3 |
1.5 |
9.0 |
114.5 |
45.0 |
2005 |
106.5 |
64.0 |
29.0 |
57.0 |
165.2 |
10.0 |
10.0 |
10.0 |
111.0 |
40.0 |
2006 |
107.8 |
65.4 |
29.0 |
62.0 |
178.3 |
10.5 |
12.0 |
10.5 |
100.5 |
41.0 |
2007 |
115.7 |
78.7 |
33.5 |
61.5 |
183.0 |
11.0 |
20.0 |
13.5 |
105.5 |
42.0 |
2008 |
123.1 |
83.0 |
40.6 |
63.5 |
194.2 |
13.5 |
19.4 |
13.9 |
81.0 |
49.0 |
2009 |
104.0 |
80.5 |
43.3 |
64.1 |
205.8 |
14.5 |
18.0 |
15.1 |
77.3 |
45.0 |
% change on previous year |
-15.5% |
-3.0% |
6.8% |
0.9% |
6.0% |
7.4% |
-7.3% |
8.6% |
-4.5% |
-8.2% |
Year
|
D.R. of
Congo
(b) |
Other
Africa
|
Bangla
-desh
(d) |
Cambodia
|
China
|
India
|
Indonesia
|
2002 |
7.0 |
1.0 |
5.2 |
32.4 |
527.0 |
640.8 |
1630.0 |
2003 |
7.0 |
1.0 |
5.2 |
32.4 |
565.0 |
707.1 |
1792.2 |
2004 |
7.5 |
1.0 |
5.2 |
33.8 |
573.0 |
742.6 |
2066.2 |
2005 |
7.5 |
1.0 |
5.2 |
29.5 |
510.0 |
771.5 |
2271.0 |
2006 |
7.0 |
1.0 |
5.3 |
32.1 |
533.0 |
853.3 |
2637.0 |
2007 |
7.0 |
1.0 |
12.3 |
33.0 |
590.0 |
811.1 |
2755.2 |
2008 |
8.0 |
1.0 |
14.6 |
37.1 |
560.0 |
881.3 |
2751.0 |
2009 |
8.1 |
1.7 |
17.3 |
45.3 |
630.0 |
817.0 |
2534.6 |
% change on previous year |
1.3% |
76.8% |
18.5% |
22.2% |
12.5% |
-7.3% |
-7.9% |
Year
|
Malaysia
|
Myanmar
|
Papua
New
Guinea
|
Philip
-pines
|
Sri
Lanka
|
Thailand
|
Vietnam
|
WORLD
GRAND
TOTAL
(a) |
2002 |
889.8 |
39.7 |
4.2 |
76.0 |
90.5 |
2615.1 |
331.4 |
7326 |
2003 |
985.6 |
39.9 |
4.1 |
84.0 |
92.0 |
2876.0 |
363.5 |
8020 |
2004 |
1168.7 |
52.3 |
4.6 |
80.0 |
94.7 |
2984.3 |
419.0 |
8746 |
2005 |
1126.0 |
64.2 |
4.7 |
78.5 |
104.4 |
2937.2 |
481.6 |
8904 |
2006 |
1283.6 |
73.4 |
4.5 |
75.2 |
109.2 |
3137.0 |
555.4 |
9791 |
2007 |
1199.6 |
81.0 |
4.8 |
93.0 |
117.5 |
3056.0 |
605.8 |
9801 |
2008 |
1072.4 |
76.5 |
4.8 |
94.9 |
129.2 |
3089.8 |
659.6 |
10031 |
2009 |
856.2 |
73.6 |
5.0 |
87.3 |
133.4 |
3086.0 |
723.7 |
9602 |
% change on previous year |
-20.2% |
-3.8% |
4.2% |
-8.0% |
3.3% |
-0.1% |
9.7% |
-4.3% |
明日展望:
今日沪胶超跌后的反弹并不代表胶价的触底回升,建议不要乐观追高。目前空方消息仍不断出现,市场中期调整信号愈来加强,商品市场将进入调整阶段。